Basketball Analysis & Commentary... By Drew Wolin

Monday, November 12, 2007

Fantasy NBA: Week 3 (11/4-11/11)

Just two weeks into the fantasy season, there are already some incredible things happening in the NBA (see Freaky Friday). Find out who’s hot in the wonderful world of fantasy basketball.

Freaky Friday:
I have never seen anything quite like what happened on the night of Friday the 9th. 25 Players had double figure rebound games. Shawn Marion, Emeka Okafor, and Dwight Howard grabbed 20+ boards; KG had 19. Three Lakers -- Odom, Mihm, and Bynum -- snatched 10 rebounds. Reserve guard Devin Brown had 11 of his own. Granted, there were13 games, though two double digit rebounders per game isn’t too shabby.

Players of the Week:
  • Andrei Kirilenko -- Kirilenko owners should be jumping for joy. Don’t jump anywhere near Andrei -- the impact of your landing could sprain his ankle. Injury jokes aside, Kirilenko has totaled 8 steals and 4 blocks in his last two games, in both of which he narrowly missed getting triple doubles. I would say sell high because chances that he consistently plays this well are slim, but who knows. When healthy and emotionally stable, Kirilenko is a top 15 fantasy player.
  • Marvin Williams -- He continues to make his case for the league’s most improved player… He is fresh off a 20 point, 12 rebound, 6 assist, 1 block performance.
  • Udonis Haslem -- Pat Riley, your wish has been granted -- Udonis is averaging a double-double. Haslem is exactly what I look for in a budget fantasy power forward. Great source of rebounds, solid source of points and field goal percentage, and based on his performances thus far this year, he’ll even give you a block and a steal per night.
  • John Salmons -- So far Salmons has been the best bargain in the NBA. He is averaging 20, 4, and 4 while filling in for Mike Bibby (who will not return to action for another 10 weeks or so) and Ron Artest, who is due back from suspension on Wednesday. The pending return of Artest should not impede Salmons’s progress to any great degree.
  • Chris Paul/Peja Stojakovic -- It is no coincidence that Chris Paul dished out 21 assists on the same night his teammate Peja Stojakovic drained a New Orleans Hornets record 10 three-pointers.
  • Bonzi Wells -- Should be owned in all leagues! I do not claim that Bonzi Buddy (remember that lovable purple desktop gorilla?) will undoubtedly continue to ball the way he did in his previous two games, but his potential is just too great to pass up at this point. When on top of his game, he is one of the best thefts in the league as well as a top-rebounding swingman. Theoretically, he should thrive under Rick Adelman, as he did in Sacramento.

Other Notes:
  • Ron Artest returns to action on Wednesday. I’m not sure how smart it is to try and explain what is going on his Artest’s mind. That being said, he is playing each game for his next contract (he is a free agent at the end of the year), and I expect him to put up some of the best numbers of his career.

  • Dwyane Wade should be returning to action anytime now. He will be eased into his minutes, though 20 minutes of D-Wade is better than a full game of all non-elite fantasy ballers.

  • Conley vs. Lowry: An interesting situation is unfolding in Memphis. Veteran Damon Stoudamire is currently the Grizzlies’ starting point guard, though he is the team’s worst fantasy option at that position. Going into the season I was a huge fan of Kyle Lowry’s. The Philly-bred tough guy is one of the most tenacious defenders in the league and can dish with the best of them. For a guard, his boards are on point, and he has no problem with putting points on the board. However, Lowry has had somewhat of a disappointing season. Carpe diem, Mike Conley Jr.! Conley totaled 10 points, 9 assists, and only 2 turnovers in 23 minutes on Saturday. At this point I am staying loyal to Lowry, but make sure to keep tabs on Conley.
Reader Question:
“Why isn’t Jason Terry starting? His numbers have still been solid, but there aren’t too many bench players that are worth having in fantasy leagues.” ~ Paul
Like you said, Terry has maintained his high level of efficiency off the bench for the Mavericks. Just like Leandro Barbosa, starter or 6th man, Terry remains a legitimate fantasy threat. His assist to turnover ratio is among the best in the league, and he is also a great source of points and threes.

Email me your questions @ dwolin@gmail.com!

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Fantasy NBA: Week 2 (10/29-11/4)

The first week of the 2007-2008 fantasy season has officially come to an end. Do not freak out if the number of field goal attempts by your first and second round picks equals their field goal percentage (yes, you, Gilbert and Vince owners), and most importantly, take advantage of those who do! Buy low and sell high. Perhaps you should think about shipping some of the following players out to a fantasy manager who has already given up on his underachieving stars such as Arenas and Carter.

Fantasy Fake or For Real?:
  • Hedo Turkoglu - Hedo might be a tad bit inconsistent as the season pushes forward, but that is neither here nor there. If he were to continue at his current rate of production for the entire year he’d be a top 20 fantasy player. He will be a strong source of points, threes, and rebounds.
  • Mike Dunleavy - As soon as this gets published, there is a decent chance Dunleavy will start putting up donuts in all categories besides turnovers and field goal attempts. Of course I type in hyperbole, though he has committed similar fantasy sins in previous seasons; a few great games followed by an entire season of “this guy wouldn’t even be in the league if his dad wasn’t a coach” performances. Let it be known that Dunleavy does have my vote of confidence this season and he is primed for a big year as the starting shooting guard on a depleted Pacers team.
  • John Salmons - I’m willing to go out on a limb and say that John Salmons was not a top 100 pick in your fantasy draft, though thus far he has outplayed the majority of the guys picked ahead of him. Don’t worry about the return of Ron Artest 5 games from now, it won’t have much of an effect on Salmons since he will still see a lot of minutes at the point. Milk him for all he’s worth until Mike Bibby comes back in about 10 weeks, and then sell high.
  • Chris Kaman - I am ashamed I kept him off my pre-season sleeper list. The hyperactive hillbilly kept the Halloween spirit alive in his season debut, as he was an absolute monster on the block for the Clippers. He may not be the prettiest thing on two legs, but he can help your team, especially since Westchester County’s own Elton Brand returns to action in… well nobody knows
  • Damien Wilkins - The son of the lesser of the two Wilkinses (Gerald, not Dominque) had produced in previous years whenever he got time. His main problem was that he was behind Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis in the depth chart. Seattle’s two ex-stars are long gone which spells oodles of P.T. for Damien. He should continue to be a good source of points, rebounds, and steals.
  • Richard Jefferson - "I'm only 27...I'm just coming into my prime, if you combine ability with experience. I'm looking forward to probably my best three or four years." ‘Nuff said.

Let’s Take a Moment and Reflect…
Last week I listed my sleepers for the upcoming season. I would say that I went 4/6, leaving out Ron Artest because he has yet to play a game. Walter Herrmann, to this point in the season, I was just dead wrong about -- “Fabio’s stunt double” hasn’t been getting any burn. I will reserve judgment on Andrew Bynum. Richard Jefferson, Mike Dunleavy, Udonis Haslem, and Corey Maggette have all been playing well. Of my “guys to keep an eye on,” Reggie Evans, Martell Webster, Ronny Brewer, and arguably Kyle Lowry (I just picked him up in my league for Herrmann) have already began making their mark on the 2007-2008 fantasy season. The only real surprise has been Corey Brewer, who has not been on the floor enough to put up big numbers.

Reader Question:
Readers, don’t be bashful about sending me your fantasy basketball questions at dwolin@gmail.com! Here is a question I received last week:
I was offered Ron Artest and Tony Parker for Steve Nash and Randolph Morris. Should I do it? ~Big Sherm a.k.a. the Sherminator
Artest will be playing for his next contract this year. If nothing else can get him to behave, the money should. Tony Parker is not on the same tier as Steve Nash, though he is one of the best point guards in the league. Steve Nash will still be a great fantasy player this year, though he is not quite the sure thing he was a season ago. Generally I am not a fan of 2-for-1 deals where I am receiving the 2 players, but if the free agent pool in your league is weak (is Randolph Morris really the best you could do?) then go for it, Sherm.

 
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