Basketball Analysis & Commentary... By Drew Wolin

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Fantasy Preview for the 2007-08 NBA Season

Articles will be written weekly, and all readers are encouraged to e-mail me any questions regarding the fantasy NBA season @ dwolin@gmail.com. The article is designed to guide you through your draft.

Early Rounds:
  • Ron Artest - The Tru Warier is in a contract year. His second career as a rapper has not worked out too well thus far, and the man will need to feed his family somehow. Though he may miss the first seven games of the season (he is currently in the process of appealing his suspension), when fully focused Artest’s line should look something like 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 three-pointer, and 8/19 FG, making him a top 10 fantasy basketball player. Disclaimer: it is still Ron Artest.
  • Corey Maggette - Here are the three reasons why Corey Maggette is this season’s most surefire sleeper: 1) He is fresh off his worst season in years thanks to various injuries and disagreements with coach Dunleavy, and he will likely be drafted accordingly. 2) Elton Brand and his 20 points and 10 rebounds per game are gone for anywhere between one to three quarters of the season. Maggette will gladly pick up the slack. 3) Most importantly, this is a contract year. As any player in the league will tell you, the NBA is a business. Assume the former Dukie is a good businessman.

Mid-Rounds:
  • Andrew Bynum - Kobe’s tears have drowned out the excitement in the Laker organization for the big man, but make no mistake about it -- opponents are concerned and the Lakers are confident. Bynum claims to have spent the off-season working on his body and conditioning, and it will pay dividends in the upcoming season. Also it is worth noting that he is “competing” with Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm for minutes. Season outlook: 32 mpg, 16 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.8 bpg.
  • Richard Jefferson - Somewhat of a lesser version of Maggette in that he is fully recovered from the injuries that were responsible for his relatively horrid 2006-07 season. One third of the Other Big Three in the eastern conference should give fantasy managers similar production to what he did in 2004.

Late Rounds:
  • Walter Herrmann - Fabio’s stunt double did not originally make the list, though 30 minutes per game just opened up when Adam Morrison went down with an ACL tear. In addition, Sean May is said to be out for the season thanks to micro fracture surgery on his knee. The Argentinian will be a good source of points, threes, and rebounds.
  • Udonis Haslem -- Like Herrmann, Haslem did not originally make the cut. Now that Antoine Walker will be doing his long-range bombing and shimmying in Minnesota, Haslem will get major minutes at power forward for the Heat. Pat Riley reportedly has told Haslem that he expects his starting 4-man to average a double-double.
  • Mike Dunleavy - If pre-season is any indicator, Dunleavy will average 35 minutes, 20 points, 3 rebs, 5 assists, and 2 threes this season. Realistically, the King of Inconsistency will not put up those kinds of digits this season, though expect to see just about ¾ of that production in his depleted Pacers team’s box scores.

Keep an Eye on:
  • Reggie Evans - His extraordinarily lackluster pre-season has me a little nervous. That being said, the workhorse has always shown that he is adept at snatching balls away from his opponents (I speak of his rebounding prowess, of course, Mr. Kaman) and should find about 10 rebounds come his way each game. He will be seeing about 31 mpg at power forward in Philly and could also average a career high of 10 ppg. Do not get too excited, though; he will not give you much else. Draft him in one of the last rounds of your draft and he will make you happy.
  • Martell Webster - According to Coach McMillan, Webster has beaten out Travis Outlaw for the Blazers’ starting wing spot along side Brandon Roy. Like Bynum, Webster is absolutely loaded with fantasy potential and he also reshaped his body in the off-season. The sharp-shooter is liable to hit 5+ threes on any given night.
  • Corey Brewer -- The “future Defensive Player of the Year,” according to Michael Redd, will have a giant role on a rebuilding Timberwolves team. McHale’s decision to deal Ricky Buckets means that Brewer will have the greatest role out of any rookie not named Kevin Durant in the League. Expect points, rebounds, threes, steals, inconsistency, turnovers, and a low field goal percentage.
  • Ronnie Brewer
  • Kendrick Perkins
  • Kyle Lowry
  • Tony Allen
  • Ike Diogu
  • Luis Scola
  • Andray Blatche

Notes:
Lamarcus Aldridge, who is a steal if he can be had with roughly the 100th pick in the draft, was left off my list because he is Yahoo’s 56th ranked player, (ahead of Maggette)… Be aware! Yahoo has Eddy Curry ranked 359 -- I assume by accident. Shaq also has a low Y! ranking of 442.. Pay attention to what players on the worst teams in the league are doing early on; it is often guys on these squads that are the biggest surprises.

 
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