Post-Lottery/ Pre-Draft Thoughts

At the bottom of the page there are the pre-lottery %'s and the official lottery draft order...

The NBA Draft Lottery was on Tuesday. There were no real surprises, as the final draft list looks very similar to the pre-lottery draft list. Portland (best chance @ #1) dropped to 4 (like I said, nothing out of the ordinary - things didn't go the Blazers' way. Except this one they can't blame on Darius Miles and/or marijuana). The Hawks moved down as well, to #5, only a 1 spot descent. The biggest surprise came when Team Canada got the #1 pick (5th best chance). Now they have a decision to make.

The Toronto Raptors do not have much. Their only players of any value are Charlie Villanueva and Chris Bosh. Both are extremely long athletes whose offensive games are lightyears ahead of their defensive games. Bosh is a long 4 or skinny 5; Villanueva is a good sized 4 or a slow 3. Last year, when Toronto made a big gamble by taking Villanueva in the draft, many pondered whether or not Raptor personell actually wanted the team to succeed or if they were just some practical jokesters. For one, they took him about 5 picks earlier than he was projected to get chosen. Second, he plays the same position as Bosh. It turns out that Villanueva and Bosh were able to play side by side fairly well, but needless to say Toronto should go for a different type of player this year. You should not see a 6'9" - 6'11", 230 - 240 lb finesse player who would rather play Russian Roulette than defense drafted this year.

Unfortunately for the Raptors, given the talent pool, the #1 overall should be used on a player that fits that very mold. Lamarcus Aldridge is a less talented Chris Bosh. Andrea Bargnani is Bosh's size with explicitly perimeter offensive skills (I don't mean his offensive skills are strictly perimeter oriented... I mean his only skill in basketball right now is his ability to play on the perimeter on offense). Tyrus Thomas, who would bring a defensive presence to the defensively challenged team, can only play the 4. In other words, it wouldn't make sense for the Raptors to use this #1 pick.

Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo has a fairly easy decision here being that there are seemingly unlimited options for him to explore in terms of trading the pick. Being that there are no sure-shot big men in the draft, he may look into acquiring Jamaal Magloire, the second best (and worst) Canadian in the NBA. And although Magloire cannot do much, the man can rebound.

Colangelo could also look to trade down and get either Brandon Roy, Marcus Williams, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, or Mardy Collins; all of whom would be superlative additions to the team. Brandon Roy could become the best player in this year's draft (not that that's saying much) and at the least would add a strong defensive player to the squad. Marcus Williams would bring his outside shot and court awareness as he would gladly distribute the ball to Chris and Charlie. Randy Foye could play point guard, and would create for himself as well as both Bosh and Villanueva while making the Raptors one of the more fun teams in the league to watch (as Foye will get 2 steals and a few highlights per game). Brewer and Collins are both talented, lengthy distributers that would keep Charlie and Chris happy while getting theirs by slashing to the hoop.

***New: 5.28***
So it turns out that the Knicks traded this year's draft's #2 pick for Eddy Curry. Of course it is simple and boring to continue thinking about how bad the Knicks are, so I will take the alternate route (and I do actually believe what I am saying, not just disregarding logic and trying to put a method to Isiah's madness). They were the only team in the lottery to lose their pick, but it is not so bad. I would still, despite his knack for underachieving (seems to be his best quality, actually), have Eddy Curry rather than whoever will be taken at #2. Eddy Curry is still 6'11", 285 lbs. He is still athletic. He is still young; only 23 years old.
The guys at the top of the draft simply don't wow me that much. Also, with Channing Frye and David Lee, the Knicks would just be clogging up their roster with Tyrus Thomas, and certainly don't need "hey, what happened to our 5th defender? Oh, he's down at our end under the hoop waiting for the ball" Andrea Bargnani and Adam Morrison. The Knicks have enough of those as it is.
Belying my positive attitude toward the Knicks, I do have one reservation: if the Bulls get Lamarcus Aldridge 2nd, the trade may end up turning into a big, big mistake. Maybe... not definitely.
I am still excited for the Knicks in this draft though, as it is not very talented at the top compared to previous years, however it is deep as ever. If Isiah plays his cards right, he could get 2 rookies (with their 2 first round picks: 20 & 29) that could be useful contributers within a year, if not right off the bat. The draft is also Isiah-safe, as the athletes that he will undoubtedly pursue can all play ball and have good (enough) attitudes. Isiah (I wouldn't put anything past him, but it seems he) can't screw up. So knick fans, be thankful that Saer Sene and Hassan Adams (who Isiah has expressed interest in) do not have Stromile Swift disease, and do actually enjoy playing basketball and will help a team with their hard play.
***5.29***
Adam Morrison should be available for the Bobcats with the 3rd pick in the draft. So long as the Raptors take Aldridge, he definitely will be. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, it looks far from certain that the Raptors will go with Aldridge. In fact right now I'd say that Bargnani is the favorite to be numero uno. Let's assume, for your sake (sparing thousands of different situations), that Morrison is available. Under these conditions, crazy as this may sound: the Bobcats should be good next year. No, seriously. Adam Morrison would be the perfect addition to a team (when all healthy) whose, really if you think about it, only weakness is that it has no wing scorers. Emeka Okafor/Sean May/Primoz Brezec manning the 5/4, Bernard Robinson/Adam Morrison/Gerald Wallace at the 3/2, and Raymond Felton/Brevin Knight at the 1 is a pretty nice team. (When they play) Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor are both very good defenders (although for Gerald, not quite the superlative defender that his insane defensive stats suggest - 2.1 steals, 2.5 blocks). Brevin Knight is wanted for grand-theft-basketball, while Felton is no slouch himself. All these steals lead to fast breaks, which Felton and Wallace excel at, and Morrison could trail for the 3 or midrange J. If I were a Bobcats fan, I'd be excited. But I'm not. I'm a Knicks fan...

Chances @ #1
1. Portland 25.0%
2. Chicago* (from New York) 19.9%
3. Charlotte 13.8%
4. Atlanta 13.7%.
5. Toronto 8.8%
6. Minnesota 5.3%
7. Boston 5.3%
8. Houston 2.3%
9. Golden State 2.2%
10. Seattle 1.1%
11. Orlando 0.8%
12. New Orleans 0.7%
13. Philadelphia 0.6%
14. Utah 0.5%

Actual Order:
1. Toronto
2. Chicago* (From New York)
3. Charlotte
4. Portland
5. Atlanta
6. Minnesota
7. Boston
8. Houston
9. Golden State
10. Seattle
11. Orlando
12. New Orleans
13. Philadelphia
14. Utah

The Cavs' Season Ends

The Cavaliers are now officially out of the NBA playoffs. After the first two games of the series, the Cavs played very well; well enough to beat the Pistons. The second half of game 7, however, was an entirely different story. The Pistons built a 15 point lead by the time the forth quarter was half over, and the Cavs' players looked emotionally drained and completely taken out of the game. It became apparent that the game was over. Larry Hughes, who did not play in games 3-6 due to the death of his brother Justin, who he was very close with, looked as if he was the only Cav who didn't need a hug.

Where the Cavs lost the game was in their lazy execution of their Lebron-do-it-all offensive strategy. This is where Lebron gets the ball about 10 feet behind the 3-point line and various teammates (usually starting with Z) rotate setting picks on Lebron's man. So long as the defenders would switch men (as the Pistons did all series), Lebron then finds himself on the better half of a mismatch. Then, Lebron makes his best effort to get into the paint. When Lebron gets into the paint, he usually dishes to an open teammate as he becomes a black hole sucking in opposing teams' defenses.
He rarely scores in this offense. Look at Lebron's point-per-quarter breakdown. The Cavs opened the second half of every game of the series with the Lebron offense, and Lebron's 3rd quarter scoring for the series was miniscule compared to the rest of the game.
Banking on Lebron getting into the key, teammates set up shop on the three point line waiting to receive the ball for a wide open shot after their man sags on Lebron. Notice that Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall are on the court whenever the Cavs run this offense.

There is one major flaw with this offense, and it was brought to the forefront in the second half of game 7. Players looked like puppets with no puppeteer as they watched Lebron try to shake his man and get to the rim. Against the rejuvenated Pistons team seen in game 7, Lebron was not able to bull his way to the lane as he could in... every other game of his life. Lindsey Hunter and Rip Hamilton did a superlative job of keeping the King in check. However, had he been able to get past the first line of defense, he still would have had to deal with the trio with the wingspan that puts Mr. Fantastic to shame; Tayshaun, Ben, and Rasheed. But again, it never got to that point. The Cavs scored 10 points in the 3rd as they watched the game slip away.

Although the offensive strategy was flawed as well as poorly executed, it would be unfair to play the blame game on the Cavs or any Cavalier personnel. Their offense slows tempo, as it seems to use the full 24 seconds of the shot clock every single time, and that is what they wanted against the Pistons. The Cavs beat the Pistons in games 3, 4, and 5 with the same strategy. What I do recommend, however, is to find a new offense for next year. I am surprised that it took 3 games for the Pistons to fully exploit this stagnant offense. It is not easy, even for Lebron, to stand still for 5 seconds 40 feet from the basket, and then try to create with the opposing team's defense set and focused in on, who else, Lebron James.

The Cavs have a lot to look forward to next year; Lebron will be one year older, Larry Hughes will (presumably) be healthy, Anderson Varejao blossomed at the end of the season and should continue to improve, Flip Murray will be with the team for training camp (so long as resigns... he is a Free Agent); team chemistry seemed to be solid; they should be excited. They pushed a borderline "Dynasty" team to 7 games in the first playoff series for the franchise since Z's rookie year 8 years ago.

It looks like Mike Brown does know what he's doing. He has a good basketball mind, and I believe he will learn from his ( very respectable) first season and come in next year leading an even stronger Cavaliers team. I also hear that he is looking to add an offensive-minded coach for next year...

Lebron's head seems to be in the right place as well. "We did a great job of making the playoffs, but our goal is higher now. We're going to try to get better and try to come back and win a championship.''

What does Lebron look to do this off-season to better the team's chances of winning in '07? Perhaps this is a look at things to come:

Knick Players Never Learned to Win

Here's the post on Knicks and winning I promised

It is no secret that the New York Knicks have trouble winning.
Why don't they win? They have talent... some may say they must play no D... they must play with no passion... they must fight with each other... nobody listens to the coach... And yes, all of this is true. However, this should be of no surprise. If you take a look at their roster, there is one problem that stands out more than Manute Bol on ice skates. The "centerpiece" players do not win. They never have. So then why should these players, already addicted to losing, start now? It seems to me that it is unrealistic to expect a collection of losers, when brought together, to win. If you were the owner of a store, would you ask someone who was just released from solitary confinement to be your floor manager? OK, so maybe your reservations would come more from the fact that he needed to, for example, eat a man to get there in the first place (Hannibal Lecter comes to mind), but is a cannibal's people skills any better than, say, a calloused loser's winning skills?

Here is a player-by-player analysis of just how bad a job was done when creating this Knick team.

Stephon Marbury - This one's almost too easy... He underachieved in Minnesota, but it was okay because he was just young talent. He saw (teammate) Kevin Garnett get a big contract and then jealousy took over. Stephon Marbury wanted out. He would tell you those exact words (Starbury is no stranger to talking in the 3rd person).
And so he fled to New Jersey - a fresh new start. 34 losses and 16 wins (lockout year) later, things started to really look down for Stephon. He became labeled as a selfish loser. But maybe Starbury just couldn't function after a 4 month lockout. Maybe Starbury doesn't work under those conditions.
Fast forward two years and Steph has built himself an... impressive... 73 - 141 record in New Jersey. He emerged victorious in about 1 out of every 3 games. Nice.
After he set a New Jersey Nets record in 2000 for most 30+ point games in a row (5 games), it looked like Steph may be able to carry the Nets on those rounded shoulders of his. Unfortunately, though, Stephon wore out his welcome after yet another losing season (despite stellar individual numbers).

A Jason Kidd for Stephon Marbury trade saw Steph get yet another clean slate in Phoenix, leaving Jason Kidd behind in Jersey. Fast-break style offense, 51 wins the previous year; Steph is sure to thrive in Phoenix. And thrive he did. 20.4 points and 8 assists a game... pretty solid. Pay no mind to the fact that Steph led the train wreck to 36 wins and it would appear Starbury was a good acquisition for the Suns. And who wants to hear about this "Nets double their win total with arrival of Jason Kidd" crazy talk? Steph got 20 and 8! Lighten up...
So for the next season, all Marbury needed was a little boost from Amare Stoudemire to get him over the .500 hump for the first time in 6 seasons. By the end of the 2002-03 season, Starbury had built himself a 44-38 record. Problems arose again next season, however, when the Suns went 9-17 with Steph (29-53 overall). And so that is when he arrived in New York; in the middle of a 9 win, 17 loss campaign.
Now pardon me for being the eternal pessimist, but I can't help but overlook the fact that when Steve Nash took over PG duties for Marbury after the 29 win season in '03, the Phoenix Suns won 62 games. That is, they had the best record in the NBA.

Eddy Curry - The guy's talent is unquestioned. The man is 280 pounds of raw power (maybe with a little pudge here and there) distributed through a sky-scraping 6'11" frame. These physical attributes led to him being dubbed as, the basketball-head favorite, "Baby-Shaq." Although not quite matching the Diesel’s size, Eddy was and is a physical specimen. The talent is there. So, definitely worth investing in, right? Maybe not for the Knicks.
In Eddy Curry's first 3 seasons, his team built up a 74 - 172 record. That, to be plain, is not good. He was 1 of the few players in the NBA that got to say that they were on the team known as the league's official doormat (kind of like the Knicks have turned into). These Bulls were as bad as the Jordan Bulls were good.

Jamal Crawford - Crawford had the Eddy Curry Bulls experience, but supersized. Jamal never enjoyed the winning season that Eddy did in his last year. He was drafted by the Bulls just in time for their 15-67... yes, 15 wins and 67 losses... season. He then hightailed it out of Chicago en route to N.Y. right before the Bulls enjoyed their first post-Jordan winning season. It would be unfair to say it was because of Jamal. However, the Knicks took on yet another player who had no winning experience.

Steve Francis - The winningest of the four, though still nothing to call home about. With winning seasons scattered throughout his career, he was a part of some sort of professional basketball success. Steve, unfortunately, can bring a losing attitude to a team. Though not always the case, he can become lackluster when things don't go his way (Orlando), he can get wrapped up in personal stats (rookie year), and he can quarrel with coaches (Houston - Van Gundy, and Orlando - Johnny Davis).

When surrounded by winners, a loser can be transformed. Just look at Rasheed Wallace. The top player on an underachieving Portland team (and even a short stint with the Hawks) and he is now leading the former World Champ Pistons. Unfortunately for the Knicks, one winner surrounded by losers can not make for a good team. The Knicks have one of the best leaders in the NBA in Malik Rose, however the Knicks need far more than one Malik. The Knick culture of loserdom negates Malik Rose's leadership abilites.
The lesson that can be learned is that stockpiling talent does not always work. Not a bad idea Isiah, but these players were available for a reason. Learn from the past, and gey talented winners.
Look at the current Bulls roster. Ben Gordon (HS, College Titles), Chris Duhon (College Title), Andres Nocioni (World Title with Argentina), Kirk Hinrich (HS Title). Not the most talented group, but these gym rats have been a part of winning teams all of their lives and thus (are the only team in the NBA to) overachieve. My recommendation to Isiah is take a page out of Jim Paxson's book and get winners first, raw talent second.

Just How Big of a Disgusting Mess are the Knicks?

Reports are out that Larry Brown and his $10 mil a year contract are going to be bought out after his single season disaster in New York (link). His replacement? None other than Larry's partner in crime in building this disaster, Isiah Thomas.

Although I would have loved for Larry to have another year to teach the kiddies basketball, especially given his history of needing time to get his team to play "the right way," Larry Brown will never get through to this group of Knicks. Many of them have no basketball IQ to begin with, but they are also sensitive. Add to that Larry's all-too-common public beratings of his team and you have quite the volatile mixture. Larry's biggest mistake this year was not failing to give his players defined roles, failing to win, no. That is not where he lost the support of his team. He lost it by going to reporters and verbally abusing the players. People do not like to be insulted, nonetheless balloon ego'd NBA players. It's a shame; if anyone has the knowledge to teach a group with raw talent how to get the most out of their ability, it would be Larry Brown. Unfortunately, he just does not have the personality.

Moving on to Isiah Thomas, just about the only coaching advantage he has over Larry is that the players are willing to listen to him. At this point, the Knicks would listen to Martha Stewart tell them about basketball before they would listen to Larry. In general, Isiah has a good rapport with the players. If Isiah had Larry's knowledge, there would be no problem with the fire and hire. Isiah The Coach, however, does not hold a candle to Coach Larry. Larry comes from a line of basketball purists that reach back to Dr. Naismith, the originator himself. In fact, Larry is only about 2 disciples removed from the Dr. Isiah, on the other hand. Well... he comes from the "I was one hell of a player... yeah... a damn good player... hall of famer... all-star... Champion..." kiss the mirror line. And somewhere in there, Isiah feels that "I'll be a good coach" is implied.

Isiah knows how to compete on the basketball court, but in order to compete on the sidelines he must realize that not everyone has his killer instinct... Charles Manson doesn't have Isiah Thomas' killer instinct. He must realize not everyone knows how to play the game the way he did. He is not the right coach for the Knicks. A level-headed Larry Brown is. A teacher is the right coach for the Knicks. Isiah may know his X's & O's (or maybe not... not totally sure what Isiah the Coach knows), but he does not have the level of basketball teaching knowledge for the Baby Knicks. The Knicks need a coach who will get the players on board with positive encouragement while teaching them how to get the most out of their talent, and more importantly WIN. (segue to post on Knicks and winning... coming soon).

2006 NBA Draft Preview: Top 3

Due to the new NBA age limit (excluding traditional high school seniors and foreigners under the age of 19 to enter the draft), there is no Greg Oden in this year's draft. No Lebron. No Amare, etc.
The consensus top 3 in the 2006 draft goes like this: Lamarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, and Tyrus Thomas. The lazy one, the unproven one, and the resembles-Stromile-Swift-too-much one, respectively.
The top of the draft is where the players are supposed to be, and none of the big 3 appear to be the league's next players.

Adam Morrison is likely to average 15-16 points given 30 minutes his rookie year, but he needs to make leaps and bounds in his defensive effort before he can expect to see 30 minutes a game. Don't expect the man dubbed by some as "The Next Larry Bird" to ever be more than the starting SF on a .500 team unless he becomes a smart defender. If that does not happen, he would be best served to play a significant role off the bench as "instant offense" for a good team with good shot blockers... good fit for the Pistons.

Speaking of shot blockers, Tyrus Thomas seems like the safest pick of the 3. Although the resemblance to Stromile Swift is remarkable, I can assure you it is just cosmetic. Same school, same height, same weight, same athletic ability, yes. They are physical clones. What Tyrus Thomas has that Stromile lacks is a brain. Stromile's me myself and I need $m$o$n$e$y$ attitude has gotten him nowhere. Actually, it has gotten him a big contract... not much to warrant his #2 selection in the 2000 draft though. Tyrus, on the other hand is a good teammate, has a good 15 foot J, and is a much better leader. Thomas is a sure thing to be a serviceable+ NBA player. What he has over the other two prospects at this point is that he is good enough to come in and start on any NBA team not in Detroit. What Tyrus must avoid are injuries. With a style of play like his, where he spends more time in the air than on the court, injuries are almost inevitable. Hopefully he can avoid the long term ones and anything concerning the knee.

Lamarcus Aldridge has the most talent, but also is the most likely of the 3 to become a bust. Joe Smith, if you will. Although I've always felt the word 'aggressiveness' when relating to basketball is a bit arbitrary, that is the best word to describe what Aldridge lacks. He is not quite Rudy Gay in terms of his aggressiveness (if you haven't noticed - Rudy Gay is as aggressive as a dead biodegrading sloth), but he's far from where he needs to be mentally. For example, the difference between Kevin Garnett and Lamarcus Aldridge is not their physical ability; in that aspect they are very similar. It is Kevin Garnett's mental ability to outwork his opponent, not be afraid to try, and his ability not get too down on himself when things don't go well. To be cliche, "basketball is 90(+)% mental and 10(-)% physical." Lamarcus will play 10 years based on talent alone, but his ability to stay mentally focused and stay aggressive during games will dictate whether or not he becomes a star.